Section
Economy
Perli says Fed rate control can absorb lower reserves
Fed reserve demand is back in focus after Roberto Perli said the New York Fed can keep rates on target even as reserves drift lower and cuts recede.
Mortgage rates 2026: why the 30-year fixed hit 6.75%
Mortgage rates hit 6.75%, the highest since July, as the Treasury selloff tightened housing finance and raised borrowing costs into the spring market.
Student-loan defaults are now a consumer-credit story
Student loan defaults jumped again in 2026, pulling 3.6 million borrowers into default over two quarters and raising fresh risks for credit and spending.
UK food price caps test inflation policy as costs rise
UK food price caps are the Treasury's answer to rising grocery inflation, but any relief would shift the bill through margins, rules or later prices.
What changed for Public Service Loan Forgiveness in 2026
PSLF still offers forgiveness after 120 qualifying payments in 2026, but a new employer rule and repayment-plan changes raise the cost of paperwork mistakes.
Former Fed officials tell Warsh balance-sheet size is the wrong target
Former Fed officials say Kevin Warsh's real test is whether the Fed can keep reserves, repo markets and policy transmission stable while rates stay higher for longer.
Gundlach's Fed warning shows how 3.8% inflation is crowding out cuts
Jeffrey Gundlach's blunt view on rates matters less as a personality call than as a marker of what hotter CPI, firmer oil and elevated Treasury yields are doing to the market's easing narrative.
China's April miss clouds growth outlook as oil muddies easing bets
Weak April retail sales and industrial output in China complicate the global growth picture just as higher oil prices revive imported inflation worries.
Senate confirms Warsh as Fed chair, sharpens rate repricing
Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation gives investors a real-time policy transition to price as sticky inflation and fading cut bets reshape the 2026 rates path.
Warsh inherits a Fed that may need to hike, not cut
Ed Yardeni's July hike call matters less as a calendar bet than as a market signal: bond traders are testing whether a Warsh-led Fed must get tougher to regain control of the inflation story.
Home builder sentiment rises, but high rates still cap demand
Home builder sentiment improved in May, but mortgage rates near 6.65 per cent kept buyer traffic weak and builders leaning on incentives.
Iran-war oil shock pushes Europe toward a stagflation trade
Europe's looming forecast downgrade matters less as a headline revision than as evidence that oil is moving from energy into growth, inflation and ECB pricing.
Hot inflation revives Fed hike bets and lifts yields
Fed funds futures are pricing a 2026 rate increase after April CPI and PPI ran hot, pushing Treasury yields higher and testing the Fed's hold message.
BOJ seen lifting rates to 1.0% in June as energy costs bite
A Reuters poll and firmer wholesale inflation data are hardening the case for a June Bank of Japan rate increase and pushing Japanese yields back into the global macro conversation.
Warsh is right on Fed reform, but wrong on AI-led rate cuts
Warsh's case for Fed reform is stronger than his AI-led argument for cutting rates while inflation still sits above target.
What the 30-year fixed mortgage rate measures in 2026
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is not a simple Fed proxy. In 2026, it is a bond-market price that helps explain affordability, refinancing and how tight housing finance still feels.
CPI today: how hotter inflation reshapes Fed and market bets
April's 0.6 per cent monthly CPI rise matters because it can delay Fed easing, lift Treasury yields and force equity investors to reprice risk.
Consumer debt 2026: homeowners hold up as renter strain grows
Consumer debt reached $18.794 trillion in Q1 2026, but renters are showing more strain than homeowners as card balances and housing stress build.
U.S. factory output rises 0.6% as autos, AI lift production
U.S. manufacturing output rose 0.6 per cent in April as motor vehicles and AI-linked demand drove production higher, but New York Fed data showed delivery times lengthening and price pressures accelerating.
Goldman resets Fed cut call to December as yields climb
Goldman Sachs Fed cut forecast shifted to December as 4.595 per cent Treasury yields and sticky inflation pushed markets toward a higher-for-longer view.
Student-loan repayment reset narrows federal borrower choices before July 1
Federal student-loan borrowers are heading into July with fewer repayment options, forcing a practical choice between lower monthly bills and shorter paths out of debt.
Fed balance sheet still shapes liquidity, yields and risk
The Federal Reserve's weekly H.4.1 statement still tells traders how much liquidity is in the system, how far quantitative tightening has run and why Treasury yields keep feeling the runoff.
Fed survey shows slower 2026 growth as inflation stays sticky
Philadelphia Fed forecasters cut 2026 growth and lifted near-term inflation estimates, leaving markets to weigh softer activity against fresh Fed hike odds.
Wells Fargo sticks with two Fed cuts after inflation shock
Wells Fargo still expects two 2026 Federal Reserve cuts even as futures traders price a hike. The split shows how differently banks and markets are reading the latest inflation scare.
Kevin Warsh walks into the Fed's biggest family fight in 34 years
Kevin Warsh takes over as Fed chair with inflation at 3.8%, the FOMC split 8-4 on rate policy, and markets pricing a 51% chance of a rate hike by December.
