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Economy
Powell exits with an inflation scar as Warsh inherits a repriced Fed
Powell preserved the Fed's independence but not its inflation record. Warsh now inherits a central bank facing repriced rate expectations and less room for error.
Government student loans in 2026: how federal borrowing works
Federal student loans will look simpler from July 2026. Here is how subsidized, unsubsidized and PLUS loans work, and what new borrowers should watch.
Wolfe Research says oil surge raises central-bank error risk
Brent above $109 is forcing investors to treat oil as a macro-policy shock, with analysts warning the Fed, ECB and BoE could tighten into weaker growth.
Trump gas-tax holiday would barely offset an oil shock at the pump
A federal gas-tax holiday could trim only pennies from a $4.50 gallon while an Iran-driven oil shock keeps the bigger price pressures in crude, freight and refining.
El-Erian warns US has weeks to avoid recession as gasoline hits $4.39
Mohamed El-Erian says the gasoline surge is becoming a consumer-spending shock, leaving the US only a narrow window to avoid recession.
New York factory gauge jumps to 19.6 as price pressures build
The Empire State survey showed the strongest factory reading since 2022, but rising prices paid and received suggested inflation pressure in goods production remains hard to shake.
Mortgage rates climb with Treasury yields as buydowns return
Higher Treasury yields are feeding back into mortgage costs, keeping 30-year rates above 6.4 per cent and forcing lenders to lean harder on credits and buydowns to keep deals alive.
US debt milestone matters more as higher yields lift financing costs
Crossing 100 per cent of GDP is a useful hook, but the sharper macro question is how higher yields, stickier inflation and slower growth are lifting Washington's financing bill.
El-Erian says $4.39 gasoline is turning oil shock into recession risk
A jump in average gasoline prices to $4.39 is testing the consumer cushion that has kept US growth alive, sharpening recession warnings from Mohamed El-Erian and Mark Zandi.
Markets price Fed hike by January after hot inflation
Traders shifted from betting on Fed cuts to pricing a 60 per cent chance of a 25-basis-point hike by January after hotter inflation forecasts and rising Treasury yields.
Fed transition uncertainty deepens as Trump nominees resist Powell stopgap role
Resistance to Jerome Powell serving briefly as chair pro tempore leaves investors weighing a messy handoff to Kevin Warsh just as futures markets start to price a fresh Fed hike.
U.S. inflation forecast jumps to 6% as traders harden Fed bets
Economists now see U.S. inflation near 6 per cent in the second quarter, pushing Treasury yields higher and lifting bets on a tougher Fed path.
The ECB and BoE Are Unlikely to Rush With Rate Hikes
Europe's two largest central banks kept borrowing costs on hold at their April meetings, but the direction of the next move is no longer ambiguous. Rising energy prices and sticky services inflation are forcing Frankfurt and Threadneedle Street to confront a question neither wants to answer: how much growth are they willing to sacrifice to keep inflation expectations anchored?
Warsh confirmed: 12 Fed voters gather as Powell's final meeting looms
Kevin Warsh joins the FOMC this week after a 51-45 Senate confirmation, taking a seat at the table just three days before Jerome Powell's term as chair expires. With April inflation at 3.8% and Iran-driven energy costs still climbing, the 12 voting members are almost certain to hold rates steady.
Student loan defaults 2026: 3.6M borrowers enter default
Student loan defaults: 3.6M federal borrowers entered default as pandemic protections unwind. Credit scores dropped 91 points, NY Fed data show.
Warsh Confirmation Meets 3.8% CPI as Rate-Hike Bets Eclipse Cuts
The April consumer price index rose 3.8 per cent year-over-year, beating every Wall Street estimate as Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation vote approaches. Markets now price a greater than 50 per cent chance of a rate increase by January 2027, upending the rate-cut mandate that defined his nomination.
BoE rate-hike bets leap to 68 bps, approaching three quarter-point moves
Investors pushed Bank of England rate-hike wagers sharply higher on Tuesday, piling 12 basis points of additional tightening into futures contracts in a single session as global geopolitical tensions and domestic political uncertainty converged to darken the UK inflation outlook.
Senate advances Warsh Fed nomination as inflation pressures mount
The Senate voted 49-44 on Monday to advance Kevin Warsh's nomination as Federal Reserve chair, setting up a May 15 confirmation vote that would hand him a central bank grappling with 3.3% inflation and an impatient White House.
The ECB held rates in April. A June hike now looks like the baseline.
Eurozone inflation jumped to 3.0 percent in April, driven by an Iran-conflict energy shock, and ECB policymakers are signaling the first rate hike since the easing cycle is coming in June.
April CPI seen at 3.7%, highest since 2023, on Iran oil spike
The April consumer price index is expected to show US inflation accelerating to 3.7% year-on-year, the fastest pace since September 2023, as the oil shock from military strikes on Iran feeds through to gasoline and grocery prices.
ECB's Nagel: Two More Rate Hikes Are the Baseline
Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said the ECB's baseline scenario now includes two additional rate increases this year as the Iran war fuels inflation, hardening the case for a June move.
BofA rules out rate cuts before second half of 2027 on sticky inflation
Bank of America Global Research has scrapped its forecast for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, pushing the first reduction to the second half of 2027 as core inflation holds at 3.3 per cent and an Iran-driven energy shock keeps the central bank on the sidelines.
Fed is running out of reasons to cut rates
A stable labour market, sticky inflation above 3 per cent, and a rapid sell-side pivot away from rate-cut forecasts have eroded the Federal Reserve's case for easing. The debate on the FOMC has shifted from how fast to cut to whether the next move is a hike.
Powell holds rates 3.5-3.75%, ties inflation to Trump tariffs in farewell
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell held rates steady at 3.5 to 3.75 per cent on April 29 and pinned elevated inflation on Donald Trump's tariffs. He told reporters he will stay on as governor through January 2028.
Lagarde rejects euro stablecoins, warns $300bn market threatens ECB policy transmission
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde rejected calls for the euro area to promote euro-denominated stablecoins, warning that the $300 billion market risks financial stability and would narrow the channel through which ECB rate decisions reach the real economy.
