Section
Economy
Goldman delays Fed rate cut path to December as Iran shock persists
Goldman Sachs has pushed back its forecast for the Federal Reserve's 2026 rate cuts to September and December, citing oil-driven inflation from the US-Iran war. The shift aligns the bank with the Fed's own dot plot and the Wall Street consensus that easing will arrive late.
Boston Fed's Collins warns Iran conflict will keep rates elevated into 2027
Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins backed the FOMC's hawkish dissenters on Wednesday, warning that the Iran conflict is fuelling persistent inflation through energy-price shocks and that interest rates should stay on hold for an extended period.
China April exports jump 14.1%, smash forecasts as factories front-run tariffs
China's exports surged 14.1 per cent in April from a year earlier, more than quintupling the 2.5 per cent gain posted in March and handily beating economist forecasts of 7.9 per cent, as factories raced to ship orders ahead of potential tariff escalations and Middle East supply disruptions.
US mortgage rates rise to 6.43% as Iran conflict keeps bond yields elevated
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.43 per cent as of May 7, extending a climb that began in March, as the Iran conflict and persistent inflation kept upward pressure on the 10-year Treasury yields that drive home-loan pricing.
US employers add 115,000 jobs in April, topping 65,000 consensus estimate
US employers added 115,000 jobs in April, well above the 65,000 consensus estimate, the Labor Department reported Friday. The unemployment rate held at 4.3 per cent even as the labor force participation rate slipped to its lowest since October 2021.
Bank of America sees no Fed rate cuts until second half of 2027
Bank of America Global Research no longer expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year, pushing its forecast for the next reduction to the second half of 2027. Sticky inflation at 3.3 per cent and April's stronger-than-expected jobs report have shifted the outlook.
Cleveland Fed's Hammack says rates likely on hold 'for quite some time'
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said US interest rates are likely to stay on hold for an extended period, citing sticky inflation, the Iran war and what she called an inflationary mindset taking root among American businesses.
ECB heads into June split as Villeroy pushes back on Frankfurt hawks
Banque de France governor François Villeroy de Galhau told an audience in Paris that the next ECB move should track the data, not the calendar, in a public pushback at Bundesbank president Joachim Nagel and Austria's Martin Kocher, who had effectively lined the Council up for a 25 basis point hike on 5 June.
Fed flags oil shock, geopolitical risks as top stability threats in semi-annual report
The Federal Reserve's semi-annual Financial Stability Report found geopolitical risks and the oil shock from the Iran war were the top concerns of survey respondents, with AI and private credit rising as prominent worries.
Oil jumps above $102 after US-Iran fire exchange in Strait of Hormuz
Oil prices surged above $102 a barrel after Iran and the United States exchanged fire in the Strait of Hormuz, threatening the fragile month-old ceasefire and adding a fresh risk premium to crude markets.
Banxico cuts rate to 6.50% in split vote, signals end of easing cycle
The Bank of Mexico cut its benchmark rate to 6.50 per cent in a 3-2 split vote and signaled that the two-year easing cycle is over, even as inflation remains above target and the board is divided on whether the hold will stick.
