Section
Economy
China's April miss clouds growth outlook as oil muddies easing bets
Weak April retail sales and industrial output in China complicate the global growth picture just as higher oil prices revive imported inflation worries.
Gundlach's Fed warning shows how 3.8% inflation is crowding out cuts
Jeffrey Gundlach's blunt view on rates matters less as a personality call than as a marker of what hotter CPI, firmer oil and elevated Treasury yields are doing to the market's easing narrative.
Warsh inherits a Fed that may need to hike, not cut
Ed Yardeni's July hike call matters less as a calendar bet than as a market signal: bond traders are testing whether a Warsh-led Fed must get tougher to regain control of the inflation story.
Iran-war oil shock pushes Europe toward a stagflation trade
Europe's looming forecast downgrade matters less as a headline revision than as evidence that oil is moving from energy into growth, inflation and ECB pricing.
What the 30-year fixed mortgage rate measures in 2026
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is not a simple Fed proxy. In 2026, it is a bond-market price that helps explain affordability, refinancing and how tight housing finance still feels.
Hot inflation revives Fed hike bets and lifts yields
Fed funds futures are pricing a 2026 rate increase after April CPI and PPI ran hot, pushing Treasury yields higher and testing the Fed's hold message.
BOJ seen lifting rates to 1.0% in June as energy costs bite
A Reuters poll and firmer wholesale inflation data are hardening the case for a June Bank of Japan rate increase and pushing Japanese yields back into the global macro conversation.
Warsh is right on Fed reform, but wrong on AI-led rate cuts
Warsh's case for Fed reform is stronger than his AI-led argument for cutting rates while inflation still sits above target.
Fed balance sheet still shapes liquidity, yields and risk
The Federal Reserve's weekly H.4.1 statement still tells traders how much liquidity is in the system, how far quantitative tightening has run and why Treasury yields keep feeling the runoff.
Goldman resets Fed cut call to December as yields climb
Goldman Sachs Fed cut forecast shifted to December as 4.595 per cent Treasury yields and sticky inflation pushed markets toward a higher-for-longer view.
Fed survey shows slower 2026 growth as inflation stays sticky
Philadelphia Fed forecasters cut 2026 growth and lifted near-term inflation estimates, leaving markets to weigh softer activity against fresh Fed hike odds.
Wolfe Research says oil surge raises central-bank error risk
Brent above $109 is forcing investors to treat oil as a macro-policy shock, with analysts warning the Fed, ECB and BoE could tighten into weaker growth.
Consumer debt 2026: homeowners hold up as renter strain grows
Consumer debt reached $18.794 trillion in Q1 2026, but renters are showing more strain than homeowners as card balances and housing stress build.
El-Erian warns US has weeks to avoid recession as gasoline hits $4.39
Mohamed El-Erian says the gasoline surge is becoming a consumer-spending shock, leaving the US only a narrow window to avoid recession.
Kevin Warsh walks into the Fed's biggest family fight in 34 years
Kevin Warsh takes over as Fed chair with inflation at 3.8%, the FOMC split 8-4 on rate policy, and markets pricing a 51% chance of a rate hike by December.
CPI today: how hotter inflation reshapes Fed and market bets
April's 0.6 per cent monthly CPI rise matters because it can delay Fed easing, lift Treasury yields and force equity investors to reprice risk.
US debt milestone matters more as higher yields lift financing costs
Crossing 100 per cent of GDP is a useful hook, but the sharper macro question is how higher yields, stickier inflation and slower growth are lifting Washington's financing bill.
Government student loans in 2026: how federal borrowing works
Federal student loans will look simpler from July 2026. Here is how subsidized, unsubsidized and PLUS loans work, and what new borrowers should watch.
Student-loan repayment reset narrows federal borrower choices before July 1
Federal student-loan borrowers are heading into July with fewer repayment options, forcing a practical choice between lower monthly bills and shorter paths out of debt.
New York factory gauge jumps to 19.6 as price pressures build
The Empire State survey showed the strongest factory reading since 2022, but rising prices paid and received suggested inflation pressure in goods production remains hard to shake.
Powell exits with an inflation scar as Warsh inherits a repriced Fed
Powell preserved the Fed's independence but not its inflation record. Warsh now inherits a central bank facing repriced rate expectations and less room for error.
Wells Fargo sticks with two Fed cuts after inflation shock
Wells Fargo still expects two 2026 Federal Reserve cuts even as futures traders price a hike. The split shows how differently banks and markets are reading the latest inflation scare.
Trump gas-tax holiday would barely offset an oil shock at the pump
A federal gas-tax holiday could trim only pennies from a $4.50 gallon while an Iran-driven oil shock keeps the bigger price pressures in crude, freight and refining.
Mortgage rates climb with Treasury yields as buydowns return
Higher Treasury yields are feeding back into mortgage costs, keeping 30-year rates above 6.4 per cent and forcing lenders to lean harder on credits and buydowns to keep deals alive.
El-Erian says $4.39 gasoline is turning oil shock into recession risk
A jump in average gasoline prices to $4.39 is testing the consumer cushion that has kept US growth alive, sharpening recession warnings from Mohamed El-Erian and Mark Zandi.
