Section
Economy
BoE rate-hike bets leap to 68 bps, approaching three quarter-point moves
Investors pushed Bank of England rate-hike wagers sharply higher on Tuesday, piling 12 basis points of additional tightening into futures contracts in a single session as global geopolitical tensions and domestic political uncertainty converged to darken the UK inflation outlook.
Senate advances Warsh Fed nomination as inflation pressures mount
The Senate voted 49-44 on Monday to advance Kevin Warsh's nomination as Federal Reserve chair, setting up a May 15 confirmation vote that would hand him a central bank grappling with 3.3% inflation and an impatient White House.
The ECB held rates in April. A June hike now looks like the baseline.
Eurozone inflation jumped to 3.0 percent in April, driven by an Iran-conflict energy shock, and ECB policymakers are signaling the first rate hike since the easing cycle is coming in June.
April CPI seen at 3.7%, highest since 2023, on Iran oil spike
The April consumer price index is expected to show US inflation accelerating to 3.7% year-on-year, the fastest pace since September 2023, as the oil shock from military strikes on Iran feeds through to gasoline and grocery prices.
Fed is running out of reasons to cut rates
A stable labour market, sticky inflation above 3 per cent, and a rapid sell-side pivot away from rate-cut forecasts have eroded the Federal Reserve's case for easing. The debate on the FOMC has shifted from how fast to cut to whether the next move is a hike.
BofA rules out rate cuts before second half of 2027 on sticky inflation
Bank of America Global Research has scrapped its forecast for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, pushing the first reduction to the second half of 2027 as core inflation holds at 3.3 per cent and an Iran-driven energy shock keeps the central bank on the sidelines.
Goldman delays Fed rate cut path to December as Iran shock persists
Goldman Sachs has pushed back its forecast for the Federal Reserve's 2026 rate cuts to September and December, citing oil-driven inflation from the US-Iran war. The shift aligns the bank with the Fed's own dot plot and the Wall Street consensus that easing will arrive late.
China April exports jump 14.1%, smash forecasts as factories front-run tariffs
China's exports surged 14.1 per cent in April from a year earlier, more than quintupling the 2.5 per cent gain posted in March and handily beating economist forecasts of 7.9 per cent, as factories raced to ship orders ahead of potential tariff escalations and Middle East supply disruptions.
Boston Fed's Collins warns Iran conflict will keep rates elevated into 2027
Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins backed the FOMC's hawkish dissenters on Wednesday, warning that the Iran conflict is fuelling persistent inflation through energy-price shocks and that interest rates should stay on hold for an extended period.
Powell holds rates 3.5-3.75%, ties inflation to Trump tariffs in farewell
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell held rates steady at 3.5 to 3.75 per cent on April 29 and pinned elevated inflation on Donald Trump's tariffs. He told reporters he will stay on as governor through January 2028.
Lagarde rejects euro stablecoins, warns $300bn market threatens ECB policy transmission
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde rejected calls for the euro area to promote euro-denominated stablecoins, warning that the $300 billion market risks financial stability and would narrow the channel through which ECB rate decisions reach the real economy.
Fed flags oil shock, geopolitical risks as top stability threats in semi-annual report
The Federal Reserve's semi-annual Financial Stability Report found geopolitical risks and the oil shock from the Iran war were the top concerns of survey respondents, with AI and private credit rising as prominent worries.
US employers add 115,000 jobs in April, topping 65,000 consensus estimate
US employers added 115,000 jobs in April, well above the 65,000 consensus estimate, the Labor Department reported Friday. The unemployment rate held at 4.3 per cent even as the labor force participation rate slipped to its lowest since October 2021.
Banxico cuts rate to 6.50% in split vote, signals end of easing cycle
The Bank of Mexico cut its benchmark rate to 6.50 per cent in a 3-2 split vote and signaled that the two-year easing cycle is over, even as inflation remains above target and the board is divided on whether the hold will stick.
US mortgage rates rise to 6.43% as Iran conflict keeps bond yields elevated
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.43 per cent as of May 7, extending a climb that began in March, as the Iran conflict and persistent inflation kept upward pressure on the 10-year Treasury yields that drive home-loan pricing.
Oil jumps above $102 after US-Iran fire exchange in Strait of Hormuz
Oil prices surged above $102 a barrel after Iran and the United States exchanged fire in the Strait of Hormuz, threatening the fragile month-old ceasefire and adding a fresh risk premium to crude markets.
ECB heads into June split as Villeroy pushes back on Frankfurt hawks
Banque de France governor François Villeroy de Galhau told an audience in Paris that the next ECB move should track the data, not the calendar, in a public pushback at Bundesbank president Joachim Nagel and Austria's Martin Kocher, who had effectively lined the Council up for a 25 basis point hike on 5 June.
Cleveland Fed's Hammack says rates likely on hold 'for quite some time'
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said US interest rates are likely to stay on hold for an extended period, citing sticky inflation, the Iran war and what she called an inflationary mindset taking root among American businesses.
Bank of America sees no Fed rate cuts until second half of 2027
Bank of America Global Research no longer expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year, pushing its forecast for the next reduction to the second half of 2027. Sticky inflation at 3.3 per cent and April's stronger-than-expected jobs report have shifted the outlook.
