UK energy bills July 2026: cap seen up £209 to £1,850

UK household energy bills are set to rise by £209 a year from July, with a Cornwall Insight forecast reported by Reuters putting the new annual benchmark for a typical dual-fuel home at £1,850. The consultancy published the estimate on Tuesday. It implies a 13 per cent increase from current levels.

Ofgem is due to publish the next price cap, covering July through September, by 27 May. The regulator’s current cap for 1 April to 30 June stands at £1,641 a year for a typical household. If Cornwall Insight proves right, the spring reprieve gives way to a higher summer bill.

Ofgem will confirm or revise the number before the month ends.

The cap does not put a ceiling on total household payments. It limits the unit rates and standing charges suppliers can apply to default tariffs. Actual bills still depend on how much energy a home uses. Even so, the annual benchmark is the figure the market watches. A jump from £1,641 to £1,850 would show that lower spring bills were a temporary shift, not a turning point.

Cornwall Insight said its new projection reflects higher wholesale costs. The Guardian’s report tied the coming increase to firmer gas and electricity prices after geopolitical tension pushed energy markets higher. Wholesale moves feed through to the regulated benchmark with a lag, which is why households feel the effect weeks after traders and suppliers first absorb the shock.

The consultancy’s update also gives ministers and suppliers an early marker ahead of Ofgem’s formal call. For consumers, the arithmetic is simple: the benchmark rises by £209 from the current quarter’s level if the estimate holds.

The Guardian carried a warning from Danny Gross, an energy campaigner at Friends of the Earth, who said the increase would hit families already strained by day-to-day costs.

“Yet another rise in energy bills will be a kick in the teeth for the millions of people already struggling with the cost of living.”
— Danny Gross, Friends of the Earth, via The Guardian

What Ofgem decides next

Ofgem’s announcement on 27 May is the next key date. The regulator’s April notice fixed the current £1,641 benchmark for the spring quarter. Its next decision will set the cap for 1 July to 30 September and show whether Cornwall Insight’s £1,850 figure becomes the new reference point for default tariffs across Great Britain.

A higher cap would do more than push up monthly budgets. It would keep energy costs in the policy debate after months in which inflation had looked less threatening. Britain is not back in crisis territory, but a summer increase would remind consumers and policymakers that retail utility prices are still exposed to wholesale gas and electricity swings.

For now, the July figure is a forecast. Unless wholesale prices ease before Ofgem closes its calculation window, households are likely to head into the second half of the year with costs climbing again.