Tag
#inflation
Federal Reserve minutes show split over 2026 rate path
Federal Reserve minutes from June showed stronger inflation concern and no immediate support for cuts, keeping the 2026 rate path divided.
Prediction markets are becoming real market infrastructure
Prediction market volume hit $44.8 billion in June as Kalshi and Polymarket turned World Cup flow into a test of liquidity, compliance and regulation.
Spanish inflation June 2026 holds at 3.6%, testing ECB
Spanish inflation June 2026 held at 3.6%, above forecasts and the ECB's target, keeping pressure on rate-cut expectations as energy eased.
Fed inflation: Barkin says price pressures remain too high
Fed inflation remains above target, Tom Barkin said, even as some pressures ease, keeping the case for a restrictive policy stance intact.
Fed rate hike risk returns as Hammack warns on inflation
Fed rate hike risk is back after Beth Hammack said inflation may force tighter policy, complicating the June hold case.
Asia energy shock is turning into a currency and growth test
Asia energy shock is pushing oil-importing economies into weaker currencies, higher inflation and tougher subsidy choices as growth slows.
Consumer sentiment hits record low as Dow hits record high
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index plunged to an all-time low of 44.8 in May 2026 even as the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record 51,032, exposing a historic divergence between Wall Street optimism and household financial distress driven by war-fuelled inflation.
US fuel prices may stay high after any Iran ceasefire
US fuel prices may stay high after any Iran ceasefire, with gasoline near $4.55 a gallon as inventories, refining and travel demand stay tight.
The quiet tariff-refund race eases cost pressure
Tariff refunds are giving US companies a quiet margin boost, slowing some price hikes even as executives avoid advertising the windfall.
Fed rate cuts 2026: Nomura sees none as inflation stays sticky
Fed rate cuts in 2026 are looking less likely after Nomura dropped its easing call, citing sticky inflation, firm jobs data and a hawkish backdrop.
Why bond traders think Warsh’s Fed could hike before it cuts
Warsh Fed rate hike bets are building as swaps, 2-year yields and sticky inflation push traders to doubt any near-term move toward cuts.
Japan core inflation slows to 1.4% as BOJ hike debate returns
Japan core inflation slowed to 1.4 per cent in April, below forecasts and the weakest since March 2022, muddying the Bank of Japan's next rate move.
Hormuz Blockade and El Niño Converge Into a Commodity Super-Inflation Storm, Citi Warns
Citi Research issued its most severe commodity inflation warning to date, arguing the simultaneous Hormuz blockade and emerging super El Niño could push Brent crude past $150 a barrel while squeezing global food supplies through fertilizer disruption and drought in the same growing season.
Jamie Dimon Warns Interest Rates Could Go 'Much Higher' After Bond Selloff
Jamie Dimon warned interest rates could climb much higher from current levels, hours after FOMC minutes showed a majority of Fed officials open to further rate hikes.
Fed Minutes: Rate Hikes Ahead If Inflation Persists
A majority of Fed officials are open to rate hikes if inflation persists, FOMC minutes show, handing Kevin Warsh a hawkish committee days before his swearing-in.
US consumers keep spending as gas and inflation bite
Higher gasoline prices and 3.8 per cent inflation are darkening consumer sentiment, but April spending data show affluent households are still keeping US growth alive.
Negative real rates are back as bond markets test central banks
Negative real rates are back as inflation tops policy settings, leaving the Fed and its peers with less room to calm bond markets already pushing yields higher.
Gundlach's Fed warning shows how 3.8% inflation is crowding out cuts
Jeffrey Gundlach's blunt view on rates matters less as a personality call than as a marker of what hotter CPI, firmer oil and elevated Treasury yields are doing to the market's easing narrative.
Kevin Warsh walks into the Fed's biggest family fight in 34 years
Kevin Warsh takes over as Fed chair with inflation at 3.8%, the FOMC split 8-4 on rate policy, and markets pricing a 51% chance of a rate hike by December.
Markets price Fed hike by January after hot inflation
Traders shifted from betting on Fed cuts to pricing a 60 per cent chance of a 25-basis-point hike by January after hotter inflation forecasts and rising Treasury yields.
The ECB and BoE Are Unlikely to Rush With Rate Hikes
Europe's two largest central banks kept borrowing costs on hold at their April meetings, but the direction of the next move is no longer ambiguous. Rising energy prices and sticky services inflation are forcing Frankfurt and Threadneedle Street to confront a question neither wants to answer: how much growth are they willing to sacrifice to keep inflation expectations anchored?
Dollar Rises for Fourth Day as Inflation Data Lifts December Rate-Hike Odds to 35%
The dollar rose for a fourth consecutive session on Thursday, pushing the DXY index to 98.57, as back-to-back US inflation prints drove a sharp repricing of Federal Reserve rate expectations — lifting the odds of a December increase to 35 per cent.
Warsh confirmed: 12 Fed voters gather as Powell's final meeting looms
Kevin Warsh joins the FOMC this week after a 51-45 Senate confirmation, taking a seat at the table just three days before Jerome Powell's term as chair expires. With April inflation at 3.8% and Iran-driven energy costs still climbing, the 12 voting members are almost certain to hold rates steady.
Warsh Confirmation Meets 3.8% CPI as Rate-Hike Bets Eclipse Cuts
The April consumer price index rose 3.8 per cent year-over-year, beating every Wall Street estimate as Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation vote approaches. Markets now price a greater than 50 per cent chance of a rate increase by January 2027, upending the rate-cut mandate that defined his nomination.
ECB's Nagel: Two More Rate Hikes Are the Baseline
Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said the ECB's baseline scenario now includes two additional rate increases this year as the Iran war fuels inflation, hardening the case for a June move.
