Tag
#inflation
BoE rate-hike bets leap to 68 bps, approaching three quarter-point moves
Investors pushed Bank of England rate-hike wagers sharply higher on Tuesday, piling 12 basis points of additional tightening into futures contracts in a single session as global geopolitical tensions and domestic political uncertainty converged to darken the UK inflation outlook.
ECB's Nagel: Two More Rate Hikes Are the Baseline
Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said the ECB's baseline scenario now includes two additional rate increases this year as the Iran war fuels inflation, hardening the case for a June move.
Senate advances Warsh Fed nomination as inflation pressures mount
The Senate voted 49-44 on Monday to advance Kevin Warsh's nomination as Federal Reserve chair, setting up a May 15 confirmation vote that would hand him a central bank grappling with 3.3% inflation and an impatient White House.
Schiff flags regime shift as oil, yields and gold climb
Oil, Treasury yields and gold are rising in tandem for the first time since 2022 — a correlation breakdown that Peter Schiff says signals a market regime change driven by persistent inflation. Traditional economists see cost-push pressure arriving faster than Schiff's model predicts.
The ECB held rates in April. A June hike now looks like the baseline.
Eurozone inflation jumped to 3.0 percent in April, driven by an Iran-conflict energy shock, and ECB policymakers are signaling the first rate hike since the easing cycle is coming in June.
BofA rules out rate cuts before second half of 2027 on sticky inflation
Bank of America Global Research has scrapped its forecast for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, pushing the first reduction to the second half of 2027 as core inflation holds at 3.3 per cent and an Iran-driven energy shock keeps the central bank on the sidelines.
Bitcoin slips from $80,000 after Fed report flags inflation, rate-hike risk
Bitcoin retreated from the $80,000 zone after the Federal Reserve's May 8 Financial Stability Report flagged the Iran-driven oil shock and a hotter March PCE print as conditions that could push the FOMC toward rate hikes rather than the cuts crypto desks had positioned for.
Gold pushes toward $4,800 as oil slide and lower yields fuel rally
Spot gold traded near $4,750 per ounce late Friday, within striking distance of the $4,800 mark, as a sharp selloff in crude oil eased inflation expectations and pulled US Treasury yields lower. The move tees up a test of the 50-day moving average at $4,780.
Markets face April CPI test as earnings tide lifts tech to records
Investors head into the week of May 11 facing the April consumer price index and earnings from Circle, Nebius, and Applied Materials. The S&P 500 gained 2.3 per cent last week and the Nasdaq closed at a record, with the tech sector up 7 per cent.
Fed is running out of reasons to cut rates
A stable labour market, sticky inflation above 3 per cent, and a rapid sell-side pivot away from rate-cut forecasts have eroded the Federal Reserve's case for easing. The debate on the FOMC has shifted from how fast to cut to whether the next move is a hike.
Boston Fed's Collins warns Iran conflict will keep rates elevated into 2027
Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins backed the FOMC's hawkish dissenters on Wednesday, warning that the Iran conflict is fuelling persistent inflation through energy-price shocks and that interest rates should stay on hold for an extended period.
Goldman delays Fed rate cut path to December as Iran shock persists
Goldman Sachs has pushed back its forecast for the Federal Reserve's 2026 rate cuts to September and December, citing oil-driven inflation from the US-Iran war. The shift aligns the bank with the Fed's own dot plot and the Wall Street consensus that easing will arrive late.
Cleveland Fed's Hammack says rates likely on hold 'for quite some time'
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said US interest rates are likely to stay on hold for an extended period, citing sticky inflation, the Iran war and what she called an inflationary mindset taking root among American businesses.
US mortgage rates rise to 6.43% as Iran conflict keeps bond yields elevated
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.43 per cent as of May 7, extending a climb that began in March, as the Iran conflict and persistent inflation kept upward pressure on the 10-year Treasury yields that drive home-loan pricing.
30-year Treasury yield tests 5 per cent as oil, growth and rate fears converge
The 30-year Treasury yield tested the 5 per cent threshold this week, climbing to its highest level since 2023 as oil, growth and rate fears converged.
Gold bucks safe-haven status with 14.5 per cent decline since Iran war began
Gold has fallen 14.5 per cent since the Iran conflict started, defying its traditional safe-haven status as the oil shock suppresses rate cut expectations and pushes real yields higher.
Fed flags oil shock, geopolitical risks as top stability threats in semi-annual report
The Federal Reserve's semi-annual Financial Stability Report found geopolitical risks and the oil shock from the Iran war were the top concerns of survey respondents, with AI and private credit rising as prominent worries.
Trump's rate-cut wishlist runs into Iran inflation and his own tariffs
President Trump wants the lowest interest rates in the world but faces 3.3% inflation, a Strait of Hormuz crisis, and his own tariff regime. The Fed is expected to hold in June.
Bank of America sees no Fed rate cuts until second half of 2027
Bank of America Global Research no longer expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year, pushing its forecast for the next reduction to the second half of 2027. Sticky inflation at 3.3 per cent and April's stronger-than-expected jobs report have shifted the outlook.
