Tag
#Treasury yields
PCE may cool on paper before prices cool in the real economy
Core PCE inflation could be revised lower by methodology changes, giving markets a cooler Fed signal even if underlying prices stay sticky.
Why five-year Treasuries are the Warsh era sweet spot
Five-year Treasuries are drawing big bond managers as Kevin Warsh's hawkish Fed steadies inflation bets without fully punishing duration.
Treasury yields fall as Iran deal cuts Fed hike odds
Treasury yields fell as the Iran deal cut oil-shock fears, lowered December Fed hike odds and pushed traders back into duration.
Mortgage rates hit August high as refinance demand drops 18%
Mortgage rates hit 6.65%, the highest since August, and refinance demand fell 18% as higher Treasury yields pushed borrowing costs higher for households.
US debt interest bill rises as Iran war lifts yields
US debt interest costs are rising as Iran-war-driven Treasury yields add about $8bn this fiscal year and push mortgage rates back toward 7%.
Custody bank stocks beat in Q1 as flows stay uneven
Custody bank stocks beat estimates in Q1 as Ameriprise and Franklin turned bigger asset bases and fee income into stronger earnings.
The Iran war is draining the old petrodollar cushion
Petrodollar recycling is weakening as the Iran war keeps oil high, lifts Treasury yields and removes a familiar Gulf cushion for global demand.
Stocks before midterm elections 2026 run into a yield test
Stocks before midterm elections often hit a weaker summer patch. In 2026, 5% long Treasury yields are raising the cost of ignoring that history.
Bitcoin ETF outflows reach $1.26 billion in worst week since January
US spot bitcoin ETFs lost $1.26 billion this week, their steepest outflow since late January, as higher yields and geopolitical stress undercut institutional crypto demand.
PCE inflation nears 4% as energy shock tests the Fed
PCE inflation is headed toward 4 per cent as war-driven energy costs lift the Fed’s preferred gauge, hardening the case for higher-for-longer rates.
Why bond traders think Warsh’s Fed could hike before it cuts
Warsh Fed rate hike bets are building as swaps, 2-year yields and sticky inflation push traders to doubt any near-term move toward cuts.
Jamie Dimon Warns Interest Rates Could Go 'Much Higher' After Bond Selloff
Jamie Dimon warned interest rates could climb much higher from current levels, hours after FOMC minutes showed a majority of Fed officials open to further rate hikes.
Hormuz Blockade and El Niño Converge Into a Commodity Super-Inflation Storm, Citi Warns
Citi Research issued its most severe commodity inflation warning to date, arguing the simultaneous Hormuz blockade and emerging super El Niño could push Brent crude past $150 a barrel while squeezing global food supplies through fertilizer disruption and drought in the same growing season.
Treasury yields squeeze markets as bond strain deepens
Treasury yields near 4.6 per cent are becoming the market's main stress point, raising pressure on stocks, mortgages and rate-sensitive credit.
Negative real rates are back as bond markets test central banks
Negative real rates are back as inflation tops policy settings, leaving the Fed and its peers with less room to calm bond markets already pushing yields higher.
Treasury yields hit small caps, housing, consumers
Treasury yields above 4.5 per cent are pressuring small caps, homebuilders and consumer shares first, turning the bond selloff into a sector-rotation test.
Warsh inherits a Fed that may need to hike, not cut
Ed Yardeni's July hike call matters less as a calendar bet than as a market signal: bond traders are testing whether a Warsh-led Fed must get tougher to regain control of the inflation story.
Mortgage rates climb with Treasury yields as buydowns return
Higher Treasury yields are feeding back into mortgage costs, keeping 30-year rates above 6.4 per cent and forcing lenders to lean harder on credits and buydowns to keep deals alive.
Markets price Fed hike by January after hot inflation
Traders shifted from betting on Fed cuts to pricing a 60 per cent chance of a 25-basis-point hike by January after hotter inflation forecasts and rising Treasury yields.
30-year Treasury yield tops 5.1% as inflation worries hit futures
The 30-year Treasury yield rose to just under 5.1 per cent on Friday, its highest in almost a year, sending Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures down more than 1 per cent as hot inflation data squeezed the Federal Reserve's room to ease.
Schiff flags regime shift as oil, yields and gold climb
Oil, Treasury yields and gold are rising in tandem for the first time since 2022 — a correlation breakdown that Peter Schiff says signals a market regime change driven by persistent inflation. Traditional economists see cost-push pressure arriving faster than Schiff's model predicts.
Gold pushes toward $4,800 as oil slide and lower yields fuel rally
Spot gold traded near $4,750 per ounce late Friday, within striking distance of the $4,800 mark, as a sharp selloff in crude oil eased inflation expectations and pulled US Treasury yields lower. The move tees up a test of the 50-day moving average at $4,780.
