Nvidia (NVDA) Q1 earnings seen at $78.75bn as AI demand lifts chip stocks

Nvidia (NVDA) is scheduled to report first-quarter results after the market closes on 20 May, with analysts forecasting revenue of $78.75bn and earnings of $1.76 per share, according to Bloomberg consensus estimates.

The numbers underscore the scale of the artificial-intelligence buildout that has propelled the company’s market capitalisation past $5.5tn. Revenue at the consensus midpoint would represent a 78.8 per cent increase from the $44.06bn Nvidia reported in the same quarter a year ago, when earnings per share came in at $0.96. Shares of Nvidia closed at $225.83 on 13 May, up 2.29 per cent on the day. The stock has gained 21 per cent year to date and roughly 74 per cent over the trailing twelve months.

The data-centre engine

The data-centre segment remains the primary driver of the top line. Analysts expect the unit to contribute $72.85bn in the quarter, split between $60.53bn in computing revenue and $12.45bn in networking, according to Yahoo Finance. A year ago, data-centre revenue totalled $39.11bn — meaning the segment has nearly doubled over four quarters.

Hyperscaler demand has sustained the run. Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta Platforms have all signalled double-digit increases in capital expenditure for calendar 2026, the bulk of it directed at AI infrastructure. Nvidia’s Blackwell platform, which began shipping in volume in the second half of fiscal 2026, is expected to account for an increasing share of data-centre revenue as customers transition from the Hopper architecture.

Citi analyst Atif Malik projects the chipmaker will beat consensus, forecasting revenue of roughly $80bn and reiterating a Buy rating with a $300 price target — implying roughly 37 per cent upside from current levels. Malik’s note frames the quarter as another checkpoint in hyperscaler capital expenditure that shows no signs of slowing.

China and the geopolitical overlay

Jensen Huang, Nvidia’s chief executive, travelled to China alongside President Trump for a summit with Xi Jinping in late April. During a Special Competitive Studies Project interview on 30 April, Huang described the toll of export restrictions in unusually blunt terms.

“Nvidia had, you know, call it 90-some-odd per cent of the world’s market share. Today, in China, we have now dropped to zero,” Huang said.

The remark, while stark, captures the structural shift in Nvidia’s revenue geography since Washington tightened chip-export controls. Investors will scrutinise the earnings call for any update on how the company is repositioning its China-facing business — and whether the Trump-Xi channel alters the regulatory trajectory.

Why the Q2 guide matters more

Several analysts have argued that the forward outlook will outweigh the backward-looking print. The consensus for Nvidia’s second-quarter revenue guide sits at $86.08bn, according to TECHi. A guide below that figure could pressure the stock even if the Q1 numbers come in ahead of estimates, because the market has priced in continued acceleration through the AI capex cycle.

That dynamic — where the next quarter’s signal eclipses the last quarter’s score — has become a fixture of Nvidia’s earnings rhythm since the Blackwell ramp began. Gross margins will also be in focus: the Blackwell transition carried an initial margin headwind as yields ramped, and analysts will want evidence that the metric is stabilising.

The wider chip trade

Nvidia’s report lands against a backdrop of broad strength in semiconductor equities. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has rallied sharply in 2026, driven by sustained demand for AI compute and easing supply-chain constraints that dogged the sector through much of 2024 and 2025.

The read-through from Nvidia’s numbers will ripple across the supply chain — from TSMC and ASML on the manufacturing side to Broadcom, Marvell, and Arista Networks in networking — making the 20 May print one of the most consequential of the current earnings season. Options markets imply a roughly 7 per cent post-earnings move in either direction, in line with the stock’s average realised swing over the past four quarters.

What to watch

Beyond the headline numbers, investors will zero in on three items: the Q2 revenue guide, the trajectory of data-centre computing growth relative to networking, and any commentary from Huang on the Blackwell Ultra ramp — the next-generation architecture expected to enter production later this year. The earnings call is scheduled for 17:00 Eastern on 20 May.