Bitcoin slips to $79,614 as negative funding rates set 10-year record

Bitcoin slipped to $79,614 on Friday as negative funding rates in crypto futures markets extended to a record 67 consecutive days, and renewed US-Iran military tensions dampened risk appetite across asset classes.

The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalisation was down 1.6 per cent over 24 hours in Asian trading, paring its weekly gain to 3.3 per cent. Bitcoin had risen to $82,800 on Wednesday, approaching but failing to break through the 200-day moving average at $83,200, a level FxPro chief market analyst Alex Kuptsikevich described as a key resistance threshold.

“Market participants are taking a breather to assess the situation and gather strength,” Kuptsikevich said.

Ethereum declined 2.0 per cent to $2,278, while Dogecoin led losses among major tokens with a 3.8 per cent drop to $0.1063, the only major altcoin in the red on the weekly chart. XRP fell 1.7 per cent to $1.38 and Binance Coin slipped 0.7 per cent to $638. Solana and Tron traded in positive territory, bucking the broader trend.

The funding rate record

Crypto perpetual futures have now recorded 67 consecutive days of negative funding rates, the longest such stretch in 10 years, according to K33 Research. The metric tracks the periodic payments between long and short position holders on perpetual swap contracts. A negative rate means shorts are paying longs to maintain their positions, a condition that historically has preceded sharp squeezes higher.

“The longer the funding rates stay red, the louder the short squeeze gets,” the article noted.

The persistence of negative funding is unusual in both duration and magnitude. In prior cycles, sustained negative funding resolved through a violent squeeze higher as short positions were forced to cover. The current stretch has exceeded the previous record set in 2021 by more than two weeks, according to K33.

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index stood at 46 on Friday, indicating a return to risk-off sentiment after touching 58 earlier in the week.

Technical picture

Bitcoin’s daily relative strength index hit overbought territory above 70 earlier in the week, according to Kuptsikevich. The three prior instances in which RSI crossed that threshold since late 2025 were each followed by sharp selloffs within days. The RSI has since retreated to 60, signalling that momentum remains positive but is no longer stretched.

Trading desk QCP Capital noted in a Telegram broadcast that monthly implied volatility stood at roughly 41 per cent, with persistent demand for put options suggesting hedged bullish positioning rather than outright bearish conviction. The skew toward put protection, they argued, reflects a market that is bracing for downside but not actively betting on it.

XWIN Japan flagged $93,000 as a medium-term price target, driven by the potential for the CME futures gap to close. The March 2026 CME bitcoin futures contract opened at a premium that has since narrowed, leaving a gap traders typically expect to fill. The firm warned the move might not be linear and that a retest near $75,000 could precede any breakout.

Geopolitical backdrop

The risk-off move in crypto came as US forces fired on Iranian targets after attacks on American naval destroyers transiting the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump described the strike as a “love tap” and said a ceasefire with Iran remains “in effect”. Brent crude rose 1.2 per cent to approximately $101 a barrel, adding 6 per cent for the week, though still down more than 6 per cent from last week’s intraday high.

Broader markets also softened. The MSCI World Index slipped 0.3 per cent, while Asian shares fell 1.2 per cent from a record close, though the region is on track for a fifth consecutive weekly gain. Wall Street futures traded 0.2 per cent higher in early Friday trading, suggesting the equity market reaction to the Iran strikes may be contained.

Macro cross-currents

Negative funding plus a geopolitical risk premium is an unusual setup for bitcoin. Short positioning is concentrated and expensive to maintain, which typically precedes a squeeze. The catalyst for that squeeze is less clear with rates elevated and risk appetite fragile.

Bitcoin is now down roughly 40 per cent from its all-time high, a drawdown that on-chain analytics providers have described as relatively shallow compared with prior cycle corrections of 75 to 85 per cent. The 200-day moving average at $83,200 remains the nearest overhead resistance, with support at the 50-day EMA near $75,326 and the 100-day EMA at $76,271. A break above the 200-day with volume would open a path toward the $93,000 CME gap target, while a failure to hold the 50-day could accelerate selling toward $69,000, the longer-term trend-line support.