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Political nerds have been caught in a frenzy this evening, after The Times and YouGov released a mega poll forecasting the result of the general election.
YouGov conducted 100,000 interviews over seven days, using the same methodology that correctly predicted the 2017 election result, and the news doesn’t look good for Labour or the Liberal Democrats.
The polling predicts that Boris Johnson will win a 68 seat majority, with the seats broken down like this:
The polling also predicts a major shake-up of Parliament, with some big-hitting former MPs anticipated to lose their seats. They include:
- Labour stalwart Dennis Skinner (Bolsover – Tory gain)
- Labour Brexiteer and former Minister of State Caroline Flint (Don Valley – Tory gain)
- Former London Mayoral candidate Zac Goldsmith (Richmond Park – Lib Dem gain)
- Newly transferred Liberal Democrats Chuka Umunna, Luciana Berger and Sam Gyimah.
- Former Tory Cabinet ministers Dominic Grieve and David Gauke.
At least the Brexit Party isn’t predicted to win any seats – meaning there is one, small, silver lining.