The Liberal Democrats look set to challenge Labour for a key marginal constituency and could even win the seat, according to new polling.
Survation this afternoon released new data showing that the Lib Dems could win Portsmouth South – a seat that was narrowly won by Labour in 2017.
Jo Swinson’s party leads the Survation poll on 30% – a surge of 13% on the last election. The Tories are in second with 27% of the vote, with the incumbent Labour Party trailing in third with 24% (down 17%) – ahead of Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party on 14%.
As academic Matthew Goodwin has pointed out, Portsmouth South “points to the complexity” of the general election – and could easily be replicated in several other seats.
Portsmouth is a relatively youthful constituency, with nearly 40% of voters under the age of 35. This perhaps explains the positive performance of the anti-Brexit Liberal Democrats, who might expect a similar surge in other young, urban seats.
Meanwhile, a decent Brexit Party showing looks set to deny the Conservatives, who would stand a much greater chance of winning without a pro-Brexit rival.
The 2019 general election is set to be the most unpredictable, and interesting, ballot that we’ve seen for a long time.